This was a great week for the stock market with both the S+P and the Dow gaining just under 2%. The yield on the ten year Treasury rose 0.01% to 1.84%. The big news this week was further progress on a trade deal with China.
Economically the week was also a good one, with all the inflation indicators coming in below expectations, while retail sales excluding autos beat expectations. Weekly unemployment claims also came in slightly better than expected.
Next week we are looking at corporate earnings and the overall December unemployment rate.
~ Alex Parrs
This was another busy week in the markets with little overall change. Both the S+P and the Dow gained less than a tenth of a percent for the week. The ten year Treasury bond lost value with yields growing to 1.83%.
Economically, the data were weak. Factory orders declined in November, and December nonfarm payrolls and average hourly earnings came in lower than expected. The unemployment rate stayed the same at 3.5%. On the plus side, this again leaves room for the Federal Reserve to keep rates low, so the market didn’t react too poorly.
Next week we are looking for low inflation numbers and a slew of data on building and industrial activity all for December. Fourth quarter earnings season starts in earnest next week as well, which will give us more insight into how the economy is going.
The New Year brought us interesting market movements, but no real change overall for the week. Both the Dow and the S+P were down less than a quarter of a percent for the week. Demand for US Treasuries increased, raising prices and lower the yield on the 10 year Treasury from 1.87% to 1.79%. This was mostly caused by the US military action.
Economically, pending home sales were a positive note, and home prices continued to grow at about 3.3% nationwide. Consumer confidence for December was below expectations, but right in line with the previous reading.
Next week, we’ll see if factory orders declined as much as expected in November, as well as get a reading on December payrolls and unemployment.
Happy New Year!
The last full trading week of the year was a good one, with the S+P gaining just over 1.5% and the Dow up about 1%. The 10 year treasury yield rose to 1.92% from 1.82%. Most of the gains were spurred on by good news on the trade deal, while the impeachment vote went largely unnoticed by the markets.
Economically, the housing data was a bit better than expected and personal income also increased more than expected in November. The inflation numbers stayed low though, leaving the Fed some breathing room.
Next week, we have a short week, with few announcements due to the Holiday.
This week ended slightly up for the both the Dow and the S+P. The Dow rose about one half of a percent and the S+P rose almost three quarters of a percent. The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped to 1.82%. The major impetus for the stock market was an announcement that the China trade deal had a preliminary agreement to terms and further tariffs that were going to go into effect mid-December would not be implemented.
On the economic front, we saw lower than expected unit labor costs for Q3 and the produced price index coming in at zero growth for November which was also lower than expected. Both of these indicators show that inflation is still not a big concern, even at the producer level. Retail sales for November were a bit lower than expected, but that is likely because of the late Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Next week we get more consumer spending numbers as well several metrics of the health of the housing market.
This week saw mixed markets with the S+P slightly up and the Dow slightly down by about 1/10 of a percent. Earlier this week, the China trade talks took the stage and pushed markets downward. At the end of the week, Holiday shopping and unemployment reports saved the week by pushing the market up slightly. The 10 year treasury edged lower with yields rising to 1.84%.
Economically, the US keeps on chugging along nicely. The trade deficit shrank somewhat which could be because of trade policy, or the GM strike. Nonfarm payrolls blew expectations out of the water, coming in at 266,000 as compared to last month’s 156,000. This lowered the already stellar unemployment rate to 3.5%. The all important Holiday sales numbers showed growth over last year, and for a first time Black Friday online sales were higher than in-store sales this year.
Next week, we have the CPI for November and the Fed announcement as well as the PPI (producer price index.) These numbers are my number one concern, as the market continues to be buoyed by the Fed’s easy money policy. Hopefully we won’t get any significant signs of inflation.
~ Alex Parrs
Thanksgiving week was a short week in the markets, and slightly positive. The S+P gained almost a percent and the Dow gained about ½ of a percent. The 10 year treasury was almost unchanged at 1.77%.
Economically, there were few surprises. Consumer confidence dipped a little, pending home sales did likewise. On a positive note, care inflation was practically flat, and consumer spending was just slightly above expectations.
Next week’s data will be particularly telling as we see how consumers acted over the Black Friday, Cyber Monday weekend. Additionally, the beginning of November’s data will come in, including unemployment numbers for that month.
This was the first down week in several weeks, with both the S+P and the Dow Jones losing about one half of one percent. The ten year treasury gained a bit of value with its yield dropping to 1.77%.
The economic news was really in line with expectations with a bit of a positive surprise for housing starts and building permits in October. Once again the market benefitted late week by hopes of a positive trade deal.
Next week, we have a short week due to the holiday, and the big question is how will retail sales come in over Black Friday and the Thanksgiving weekend. There are some inflation numbers due out as well as consumer spending.