This week ended slightly up for the both the Dow and the S+P. The Dow rose about one half of a percent and the S+P rose almost three quarters of a percent. The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped to 1.82%. The major impetus for the stock market was an announcement that the China trade deal had a preliminary agreement to terms and further tariffs that were going to go into effect mid-December would not be implemented.
On the economic front, we saw lower than expected unit labor costs for Q3 and the produced price index coming in at zero growth for November which was also lower than expected. Both of these indicators show that inflation is still not a big concern, even at the producer level. Retail sales for November were a bit lower than expected, but that is likely because of the late Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Next week we get more consumer spending numbers as well several metrics of the health of the housing market.
This week saw mixed markets with the S+P slightly up and the Dow slightly down by about 1/10 of a percent. Earlier this week, the China trade talks took the stage and pushed markets downward. At the end of the week, Holiday shopping and unemployment reports saved the week by pushing the market up slightly. The 10 year treasury edged lower with yields rising to 1.84%.
Economically, the US keeps on chugging along nicely. The trade deficit shrank somewhat which could be because of trade policy, or the GM strike. Nonfarm payrolls blew expectations out of the water, coming in at 266,000 as compared to last month’s 156,000. This lowered the already stellar unemployment rate to 3.5%. The all important Holiday sales numbers showed growth over last year, and for a first time Black Friday online sales were higher than in-store sales this year.
Next week, we have the CPI for November and the Fed announcement as well as the PPI (producer price index.) These numbers are my number one concern, as the market continues to be buoyed by the Fed’s easy money policy. Hopefully we won’t get any significant signs of inflation.
~ Alex Parrs
Thanksgiving week was a short week in the markets, and slightly positive. The S+P gained almost a percent and the Dow gained about ½ of a percent. The 10 year treasury was almost unchanged at 1.77%.
Economically, there were few surprises. Consumer confidence dipped a little, pending home sales did likewise. On a positive note, care inflation was practically flat, and consumer spending was just slightly above expectations.
Next week’s data will be particularly telling as we see how consumers acted over the Black Friday, Cyber Monday weekend. Additionally, the beginning of November’s data will come in, including unemployment numbers for that month.
This was the first down week in several weeks, with both the S+P and the Dow Jones losing about one half of one percent. The ten year treasury gained a bit of value with its yield dropping to 1.77%.
The economic news was really in line with expectations with a bit of a positive surprise for housing starts and building permits in October. Once again the market benefitted late week by hopes of a positive trade deal.
Next week, we have a short week due to the holiday, and the big question is how will retail sales come in over Black Friday and the Thanksgiving weekend. There are some inflation numbers due out as well as consumer spending.
This was another positive week in the markets with the S+P gaining just under one percent and the Dow Jones gaining just over one percent. The ten year treasury bond gained price and the yield lowered to 1.83%. Hope for a China trade deal raised investors’ optimism.
Economically, the news wasn’t too shocking, but there was slightly higher than expected October inflation in both the consumer and the producer price index. This could be a problem if it continues, handcuffing the Fed’s ability to lower rates. Retail sales were a bit stronger than expected, and they are a strong driver of the economy.
Next week we get several indicators of the health of the housing market and will see if there is any further action on the China trade deal. Additionally, we will hear from the Fed on Wednesday and see if they have any growing concerns.
The broad markets rose again this week with the S+P gaining about 0.85% and the Dow gaining a bit over 1%. The 10 year treasury yield grew to 1.93%, the highest it has been since August.
Economically, we had a mixed bag, with factory orders disappointing, but nonmanufacturing and the trade deficit coming in better than expected. Third quarter productivity was below expectations and over the same period, unit labor costs rose more than expected. That could be concerning if it leads to inflation. We did get some good rumors on a possible China trade deal, with China supposedly backing off on their tariffs. Corporate earnings this week seemed more of a wash with some companies beating and some missing.
Most companies have reported earnings, so next week we are mostly focused on economic data and China. A couple of measures of October inflation come out next week and they will hopefully remain low, while retail sales grow.
It was a solid week in the markets this week with the S+P gaining almost a percent and a quarter. The Dow Jones gained just under three quarters of a percent and the 10 year treasury note fell in price to a yield of 1.8%.
Interestingly enough, many of the economic indicators that came out this week missed estimates, with home sales, durable goods orders, core capex orders, and the consumer sentiment index all coming in below expectations. That didn’t seem to upset the market though, since earnings results were very positive across the board with a few exceptions like Boeing and Amazon. The guidance Amazon put out pointed to a slower than expected holiday shopping season which upset investors.
Next week we are looking forward to the Case-Shiller home price change, pending home sales, Q3 GDP and a slew of other data on the economic front. Additionally it’s a huge week for earnings with roughly 1,000 companies reporting.
This was a pretty flat week in the markets with both the Dow and the S+P changing less than a quarter percent. Likewise the 10 year treasury also hardly moved and stayed at about 1.75%.
On the economic front, both retail sales and housing starts came in lower than expected, showing some signs of slowing. Additionally, China’s GDP growth was lower than expected. None of this really shook the market, and it would have been a nice up week for the Dow if not for bad news on the 737 MAX 8 front pulling Boeing significantly downward. Corporate earnings were mostly in line with estimates with a few standouts such as Alcoa and Netflix.
Next week we have consumer sentiment and new home sales data to look forward to along with about 600 publicly traded companies reporting earnings as earnings season goes into full swing.
~ Alex Parrs